* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/09/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 108 113 114 114 100 75 56 47 41 34 27 V (KT) LAND 110 106 108 113 114 89 66 39 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 110 103 102 104 106 86 64 38 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 9 16 16 21 24 35 43 29 16 13 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 0 8 6 -5 0 5 5 4 0 SHEAR DIR 291 245 249 253 240 232 209 215 212 225 254 255 253 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.5 27.6 25.7 24.6 24.8 24.4 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 166 166 169 171 173 162 133 111 99 99 99 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 148 148 151 154 157 145 116 95 83 81 83 81 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.1 -49.5 -48.9 -48.6 -49.3 -49.7 -50.8 -52.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 10 7 3 1 0 0 0 2 0 3 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 61 62 61 59 53 46 45 48 48 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 41 42 47 48 49 42 31 22 17 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 103 126 139 144 145 134 156 142 117 71 50 13 -14 200 MB DIV 75 101 100 100 75 108 117 11 27 12 14 0 0 700-850 TADV 7 16 22 22 32 71 76 31 -1 9 10 8 4 LAND (KM) 18 50 67 82 63 -1 -67 -331 -538 -625 -570 -632 -778 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.5 23.8 24.6 25.4 27.6 30.5 33.3 35.5 36.3 35.7 36.3 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 80.2 80.8 81.4 81.7 82.0 82.5 83.5 85.1 87.2 88.7 89.4 89.2 88.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 10 13 15 15 10 4 1 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 65 66 13 49 51 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. -6. -16. -27. -37. -45. -51. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -16. -12. -6. -3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -4. -3. 0. 3. 5. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 6. 8. 2. -13. -26. -32. -37. -41. -45. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -2. 3. 4. 4. -10. -35. -54. -63. -69. -76. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 23.1 80.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.63 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.11 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.57 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 478.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.47 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 8.5% 7.1% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 3.8% 2.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/09/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 106 108 113 114 89 66 39 31 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 110 109 111 116 117 92 69 42 34 31 30 30 30 12HR AGO 110 107 106 111 112 87 64 37 29 26 25 25 25 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 101 76 53 26 18 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 66 43 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 106 97 91 88 62 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 106 108 99 93 89 66 39 31 28 27 27 27