* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/09/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 113 116 118 118 109 91 69 52 43 34 29 V (KT) LAND 115 111 113 116 118 118 75 45 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 115 109 107 109 112 114 84 45 32 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 10 15 11 27 30 42 44 37 21 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 3 6 1 2 6 -6 -2 6 6 6 SHEAR DIR 320 270 227 234 239 227 223 212 211 206 227 245 252 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.8 28.8 27.4 26.0 24.8 24.7 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 166 166 169 172 167 150 129 113 101 100 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 152 149 148 151 156 148 130 111 96 84 83 90 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.8 -49.9 -49.6 -49.6 -49.1 -49.0 -48.1 -48.1 -48.2 -49.4 -50.2 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.5 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 10 6 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 61 60 63 62 56 51 44 44 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 42 40 42 45 46 50 49 42 31 22 17 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 92 99 128 147 143 154 149 154 184 133 75 57 42 200 MB DIV 58 72 95 113 101 41 92 103 33 26 9 6 6 700-850 TADV 6 7 9 15 17 42 64 65 25 0 7 5 11 LAND (KM) 30 20 44 93 75 13 -7 -162 -352 -494 -582 -612 -601 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.1 23.4 24.0 24.6 26.6 29.1 31.5 33.6 35.1 35.9 36.2 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 79.3 80.0 80.8 81.2 81.6 82.2 82.8 83.8 85.5 87.2 88.8 88.5 86.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 9 12 12 13 11 9 4 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 65 61 90 15 49 19 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 1. -1. -8. -18. -28. -38. -46. -53. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -16. -15. -10. -6. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 2. 3. 7. 6. -2. -18. -30. -37. -43. -44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -2. 1. 3. 3. -6. -24. -46. -63. -72. -81. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 22.7 79.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.77 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 57.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.56 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.56 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 550.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.40 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 9.9% 8.2% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.0% 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 4.5% 3.5% 2.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/09/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 111 113 116 118 118 75 45 33 29 27 27 27 18HR AGO 115 114 116 119 121 121 78 48 36 32 30 30 30 12HR AGO 115 112 111 114 116 116 73 43 31 27 25 25 25 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 107 107 64 34 22 18 16 16 16 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 96 53 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 111 102 96 93 91 48 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 111 113 104 98 94 51 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS