* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/09/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 140 139 139 135 132 124 113 85 64 49 40 36 V (KT) LAND 140 140 139 139 135 132 87 57 37 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 140 139 137 135 133 130 88 59 37 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 9 15 19 26 34 40 39 27 24 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 3 3 5 3 2 -1 -1 2 4 SHEAR DIR 302 324 290 247 245 239 228 207 217 208 210 221 243 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.0 29.4 28.0 26.7 25.7 25.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 166 167 171 171 160 138 120 109 104 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 156 154 148 148 155 154 142 119 101 90 84 89 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.1 -49.7 -49.9 -50.0 -49.6 -49.3 -48.6 -48.4 -48.5 -49.1 -50.2 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 12 11 8 3 2 0 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 60 61 62 60 58 50 43 43 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 41 40 44 44 49 50 48 35 25 18 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 85 86 97 120 130 145 133 163 165 157 105 75 32 200 MB DIV 27 41 63 68 81 98 87 113 66 30 4 19 -1 700-850 TADV 5 6 10 11 16 29 54 51 48 4 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 10 30 2 38 73 53 -16 -63 -297 -444 -511 -533 -526 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.4 23.8 25.4 27.7 30.3 32.8 34.5 35.3 35.5 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 78.3 79.2 80.1 80.6 81.2 81.8 82.3 83.3 84.7 86.3 87.8 88.1 87.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 10 13 14 12 9 5 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 113 32 11 50 63 46 50 36 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -21. -34. -47. -60. -70. -78. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -12. -13. -10. -4. 1. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 2. 2. 7. 9. 6. -11. -24. -35. -41. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -5. -8. -16. -27. -54. -76. -91.-100.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 22.3 78.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 53.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 140.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 695.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.26 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 6.1% 4.4% 2.3% 1.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 2.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/09/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 140 139 139 135 132 87 57 37 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 140 139 138 138 134 131 86 56 36 29 27 26 26 12HR AGO 140 137 136 136 132 129 84 54 34 27 25 24 24 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 126 123 78 48 28 21 19 18 18 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 118 73 43 23 16 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 140 140 131 125 122 118 73 43 23 16 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 140 140 139 130 124 120 75 45 25 18 16 15 15