* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/09/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 142 143 143 144 141 135 124 104 80 62 48 38 V (KT) LAND 140 142 143 143 144 141 101 58 38 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 140 142 142 142 140 136 99 56 37 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 5 9 13 24 26 41 41 27 25 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 0 6 4 5 1 -8 0 5 2 SHEAR DIR 342 322 320 274 248 234 222 212 201 203 211 231 228 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 28.4 27.0 26.0 25.6 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 171 170 167 169 170 167 144 125 112 105 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 156 154 149 151 152 151 126 106 93 85 88 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -49.9 -49.9 -49.1 -49.5 -48.4 -48.8 -48.8 -49.1 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 12 10 6 1 1 0 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 58 61 61 62 61 62 64 61 55 47 42 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 39 40 40 45 49 51 49 43 33 23 17 10 850 MB ENV VOR 77 85 91 100 122 132 140 148 139 176 138 97 68 200 MB DIV 31 21 41 85 85 84 41 106 90 62 35 3 -2 700-850 TADV 2 6 8 9 13 23 33 47 49 21 0 6 3 LAND (KM) 48 14 22 16 44 53 -31 -26 -208 -413 -538 -560 -519 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.3 22.5 23.0 23.4 24.7 26.6 29.0 31.9 34.1 35.4 35.7 35.3 LONG(DEG W) 77.2 78.2 79.2 79.9 80.6 81.4 81.7 82.5 83.7 85.2 86.6 87.2 87.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 7 8 11 14 14 11 6 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 54 109 16 23 48 25 59 50 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -21. -34. -46. -58. -69. -76. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -6. -2. 3. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 14. 12. 4. -10. -23. -33. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 1. -5. -16. -36. -60. -78. -92.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 22.1 77.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 140.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 689.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.26 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.8% 14.3% 11.2% 7.8% 6.6% 2.4% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 9.2% 4.5% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 6.3% 4.7% 2.6% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/09/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 142 143 143 144 141 101 58 38 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 140 139 140 140 141 138 98 55 35 27 25 24 24 12HR AGO 140 137 136 136 137 134 94 51 31 23 21 20 20 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 131 128 88 45 25 17 15 DIS DIS NOW 140 131 125 122 121 118 78 35 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 140 142 133 127 124 123 83 40 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 140 142 143 134 128 124 84 41 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS