* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/08/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 135 138 139 141 140 137 128 113 89 70 54 44 V (KT) LAND 135 135 138 139 141 140 110 62 40 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 135 133 133 134 135 134 106 60 39 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 12 17 26 37 41 46 37 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 2 0 6 4 7 3 -2 -4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 310 307 302 307 289 253 233 228 204 214 214 216 217 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 30.1 29.8 29.0 27.8 26.7 25.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 168 169 171 170 167 171 167 153 135 120 109 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 156 155 155 153 148 153 151 135 116 101 90 86 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -49.8 -49.4 -49.0 -48.4 -48.2 -48.9 -49.5 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 13 13 11 8 3 2 0 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 57 58 61 64 63 62 63 61 56 49 41 39 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 39 39 41 46 49 50 47 35 25 17 11 850 MB ENV VOR 65 74 89 94 101 132 145 129 159 161 164 99 66 200 MB DIV 36 32 16 39 71 81 91 82 124 55 17 -9 18 700-850 TADV 3 4 5 11 6 24 29 62 58 47 -2 1 5 LAND (KM) 98 63 24 44 25 104 -1 -50 -105 -311 -457 -555 -592 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.7 23.0 24.2 25.6 27.8 30.5 32.9 34.6 35.6 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 77.1 78.2 79.0 79.8 80.8 81.3 81.9 82.9 84.2 85.8 86.8 87.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 7 7 9 13 13 12 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 52 58 108 51 32 55 9 49 37 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -1. -2. -9. -19. -30. -41. -51. -61. -68. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 15. 10. -7. -20. -31. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. -7. -22. -46. -65. -81. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 22.0 76.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 60.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 135.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 664.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.29 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 4.5% 3.4% 1.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/08/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 135 138 139 141 140 110 62 40 31 28 27 27 18HR AGO 135 134 137 138 140 139 109 61 39 30 27 26 26 12HR AGO 135 132 131 132 134 133 103 55 33 24 21 20 20 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 127 126 96 48 26 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW 135 126 120 117 116 115 85 37 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 135 135 126 120 117 114 84 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 135 135 138 129 123 119 89 41 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS