* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/08/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 127 129 133 134 137 135 128 117 100 83 61 47 V (KT) LAND 130 127 129 133 134 137 119 68 41 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 130 124 121 122 124 130 129 67 40 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 6 7 9 15 24 29 41 42 38 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -3 -2 1 0 6 2 5 2 -9 2 5 SHEAR DIR 303 288 270 272 308 255 245 224 210 204 206 215 223 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.4 28.5 26.9 25.8 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 166 167 169 167 169 168 159 146 124 111 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 153 153 153 152 149 150 149 141 128 106 92 86 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -49.7 -48.9 -48.7 -47.9 -48.1 -48.9 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.5 2.3 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 11 8 6 1 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 56 59 62 65 66 65 63 61 60 55 48 42 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 36 38 39 39 44 50 52 50 42 33 20 13 850 MB ENV VOR 55 73 79 86 94 131 141 149 165 158 169 139 101 200 MB DIV 29 49 66 54 59 76 98 57 122 83 45 -4 -13 700-850 TADV 11 6 7 7 8 14 31 35 60 61 6 11 6 LAND (KM) 128 112 87 61 66 102 -4 -76 -71 -183 -434 -570 -622 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.7 22.9 23.9 25.2 27.0 29.2 31.6 34.3 35.7 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 74.7 75.9 77.0 78.0 78.9 80.2 80.9 81.4 82.1 83.3 85.2 86.6 87.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 8 8 10 12 14 12 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 59 53 60 49 70 59 83 53 31 13 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -16. -27. -37. -46. -54. -61. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 2. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 13. 16. 14. 2. -10. -27. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -1. 3. 4. 7. 5. -2. -13. -30. -47. -69. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 21.8 74.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 130.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 621.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.33 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 2.9% 2.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 4.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/08/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 127 129 133 134 137 119 68 41 31 28 27 27 18HR AGO 130 129 131 135 136 139 121 70 43 33 30 29 29 12HR AGO 130 127 126 130 131 134 116 65 38 28 25 24 24 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 121 124 106 55 28 18 15 DIS DIS NOW 130 121 115 112 111 114 96 45 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 130 127 118 112 109 108 90 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 130 127 129 120 114 110 92 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS