* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/08/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 150 149 149 151 151 147 140 133 127 116 96 76 62 V (KT) LAND 150 149 149 151 151 147 140 133 68 44 33 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 150 146 144 142 139 136 134 130 67 43 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 6 3 9 9 20 25 31 39 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 1 0 2 3 2 1 4 0 -11 2 SHEAR DIR 280 291 287 337 340 288 260 250 224 202 202 222 236 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.6 28.6 27.6 26.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 165 164 164 169 167 169 163 147 133 116 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 154 152 151 153 148 152 146 131 116 98 89 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -49.9 -49.5 -49.2 -48.9 -48.4 -48.4 -48.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.1 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 9 6 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 56 55 58 60 62 62 61 62 59 55 55 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 37 39 41 42 44 48 52 51 41 29 21 850 MB ENV VOR 57 59 59 72 90 102 132 133 141 149 137 140 80 200 MB DIV 32 31 19 28 20 43 69 98 78 126 97 17 27 700-850 TADV -1 -1 4 0 4 9 15 29 36 59 73 11 -1 LAND (KM) 144 177 150 126 109 82 102 4 -62 -21 -180 -414 -593 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.2 22.4 23.0 23.8 25.2 27.3 29.9 32.9 35.2 36.7 LONG(DEG W) 71.8 73.1 74.4 75.5 76.6 78.6 79.9 80.6 80.9 81.5 82.6 83.6 84.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 10 10 9 7 9 12 15 14 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 57 68 56 57 70 63 92 51 23 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -16. -28. -42. -54. -65. -75. -82. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 15. 19. 18. 4. -12. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -17. -23. -34. -54. -74. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 21.1 71.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 150.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 922.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.04 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/08/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 150 149 149 151 151 147 140 133 68 44 33 29 27 18HR AGO 150 149 149 151 151 147 140 133 68 44 33 29 27 12HR AGO 150 147 146 148 148 144 137 130 65 41 30 26 24 6HR AGO 150 144 141 140 140 136 129 122 57 33 22 18 16 NOW 150 141 135 132 131 127 120 113 48 24 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 150 149 140 134 131 128 121 114 49 25 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 150 149 149 140 134 130 123 116 51 27 16 DIS DIS