* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/07/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 150 147 146 144 147 146 141 133 127 123 113 89 72 V (KT) LAND 150 147 146 144 147 146 141 133 127 112 103 53 35 V (KT) LGEM 150 144 139 137 136 136 134 131 122 101 78 43 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 8 9 6 5 10 22 22 27 37 33 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 1 -2 -3 -1 7 4 1 8 1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 292 267 257 280 338 300 283 266 243 222 198 218 229 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.3 28.1 27.0 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 161 163 164 168 168 167 162 158 139 125 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 152 152 153 153 150 148 144 140 122 107 94 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -49.9 -49.4 -49.4 -49.0 -48.6 -48.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.2 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 10 7 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 51 53 53 56 60 62 65 67 61 58 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 36 34 39 40 43 46 50 52 49 34 24 850 MB ENV VOR 62 52 48 54 73 99 114 135 139 137 163 150 106 200 MB DIV 57 23 25 21 34 36 81 100 89 128 134 21 24 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 3 -5 3 19 35 37 55 57 58 9 LAND (KM) 105 150 188 162 145 103 117 74 3 35 26 -195 -416 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.3 22.9 23.6 24.8 26.6 28.8 31.6 34.0 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 70.4 71.7 73.0 74.2 75.4 77.6 79.1 79.9 80.1 80.4 80.9 81.6 82.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 9 7 8 10 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 76 23 70 69 57 69 69 56 42 39 17 12 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 155 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -29. -43. -55. -65. -74. -81. -89. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 15. -5. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -3. -4. -9. -17. -23. -27. -37. -61. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 20.7 70.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/07/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 59.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 150.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 990.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 5.6% 4.7% 3.8% 2.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/07/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/07/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 150 147 146 144 147 146 141 133 127 112 103 53 35 18HR AGO 150 149 148 146 149 148 143 135 129 114 105 55 37 12HR AGO 150 147 146 144 147 146 141 133 127 112 103 53 35 6HR AGO 150 144 141 140 143 142 137 129 123 108 99 49 31 NOW 150 141 135 132 131 130 125 117 111 96 87 37 19 IN 6HR 150 147 138 132 129 127 122 114 108 93 84 34 16 IN 12HR 150 147 146 137 131 127 122 114 108 93 84 34 16