* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 150 146 145 143 146 145 141 133 126 122 124 106 82 V (KT) LAND 150 146 145 143 146 145 141 133 126 78 82 65 39 V (KT) LGEM 150 142 137 135 134 135 132 128 122 76 74 60 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 8 7 8 6 9 13 16 24 26 41 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 1 0 0 4 4 6 4 5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 310 317 312 302 324 309 292 257 266 236 212 205 217 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.5 28.9 28.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 160 163 164 167 169 169 161 151 138 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 151 152 151 152 149 149 150 150 144 132 119 108 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -49.7 -49.9 -49.6 -49.3 -48.9 -48.6 -47.9 -47.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 14 14 13 14 12 12 9 6 1 2 0 700-500 MB RH 56 55 52 53 56 57 65 67 66 59 57 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 37 35 40 42 46 48 50 52 57 47 32 850 MB ENV VOR 62 64 47 42 52 82 101 126 140 160 169 175 172 200 MB DIV 45 75 -2 -8 33 46 52 87 70 73 105 98 11 700-850 TADV 5 6 6 6 0 5 9 16 26 37 50 65 16 LAND (KM) 91 101 155 188 167 129 104 138 22 -29 97 35 -166 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.5 23.1 23.9 25.2 27.2 29.8 32.0 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 69.0 70.3 71.6 72.9 74.2 76.4 78.0 79.3 80.2 80.5 80.2 80.5 81.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 9 7 7 8 11 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 77 76 83 70 69 58 73 67 27 69 39 18 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 160 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -29. -43. -55. -65. -73. -79. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 3. 6. 11. 13. 16. 18. 24. 10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -7. -4. -5. -9. -17. -24. -28. -26. -44. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 20.1 69.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 75.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 150.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 1.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1007.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 2.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/07/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 150 146 145 143 146 145 141 133 126 78 82 65 39 18HR AGO 150 149 148 146 149 148 144 136 129 81 85 68 42 12HR AGO 150 147 146 144 147 146 142 134 127 79 83 66 40 6HR AGO 150 144 141 140 143 142 138 130 123 75 79 62 36 NOW 150 141 135 132 131 130 126 118 111 63 67 50 24 IN 6HR 150 146 137 131 128 127 123 115 108 60 64 47 21 IN 12HR 150 146 145 136 130 126 122 114 107 59 63 46 20