* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/07/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 155 151 149 149 148 148 142 139 132 126 124 119 105 V (KT) LAND 155 151 149 149 148 148 142 139 132 92 58 60 39 V (KT) LGEM 155 148 142 138 135 134 135 134 127 92 57 59 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 7 6 7 6 8 18 18 28 35 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 3 3 -4 0 4 5 3 11 7 3 SHEAR DIR 267 297 290 283 292 335 300 250 262 258 229 211 220 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.4 28.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 160 161 164 167 168 167 166 159 141 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 154 154 152 152 151 152 150 147 148 142 122 113 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 -50.4 -50.0 -49.8 -49.3 -48.9 -47.9 -47.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 11 7 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 52 52 56 60 64 63 62 52 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 33 35 35 40 40 45 47 49 52 53 46 850 MB ENV VOR 56 52 53 46 40 62 84 109 128 155 144 169 157 200 MB DIV 2 18 66 38 12 26 28 95 84 53 92 104 74 700-850 TADV 10 12 1 0 2 2 5 14 24 24 48 52 56 LAND (KM) 142 95 113 160 189 151 98 112 97 -33 -9 26 -121 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.4 22.9 23.6 24.5 26.2 28.6 30.9 33.1 LONG(DEG W) 67.7 69.2 70.7 72.0 73.4 75.6 77.7 79.2 80.0 80.5 80.8 81.2 81.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 7 7 10 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 72 80 71 65 72 56 67 68 56 79 34 28 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 160 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -19. -31. -46. -58. -69. -77. -83. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 7. 8. 14. 17. 18. 21. 22. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -13. -16. -23. -29. -31. -36. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 155. LAT, LON: 19.7 67.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/07/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 72.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 155.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1063.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 1.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/07/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/07/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 155 151 149 149 148 148 142 139 132 92 58 60 39 18HR AGO 155 154 152 152 151 151 145 142 135 95 61 63 42 12HR AGO 155 152 151 151 150 150 144 141 134 94 60 62 41 6HR AGO 155 149 146 145 144 144 138 135 128 88 54 56 35 NOW 155 146 140 137 136 136 130 127 120 80 46 48 27 IN 6HR 155 151 142 136 133 133 127 124 117 77 43 45 24 IN 12HR 155 151 149 140 134 130 124 121 114 74 40 42 21