* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/07/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 160 157 156 155 154 150 143 138 131 127 125 120 103 V (KT) LAND 160 157 156 155 154 150 143 138 131 127 125 120 88 V (KT) LGEM 160 154 148 142 139 136 137 133 129 124 113 95 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 6 4 10 6 7 9 16 20 27 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 -2 -1 5 6 5 4 7 2 SHEAR DIR 246 262 312 306 275 324 313 286 274 263 227 214 207 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.4 28.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 158 160 163 164 166 168 168 159 151 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 153 152 152 152 150 149 148 151 143 133 120 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -50.2 -50.2 -49.7 -49.5 -49.1 -48.9 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 9 5 1 1 700-500 MB RH 54 54 55 55 52 54 58 62 61 62 59 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 34 36 36 39 40 45 46 50 53 54 44 850 MB ENV VOR 54 46 49 49 49 54 85 99 120 143 145 159 150 200 MB DIV 13 -19 11 48 28 36 37 63 43 48 47 92 80 700-850 TADV 0 7 8 4 4 1 2 7 16 26 28 47 81 LAND (KM) 66 134 118 113 155 167 133 100 107 60 11 69 -35 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.2 22.0 22.6 23.1 23.6 25.0 27.3 29.8 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 66.0 67.4 68.8 70.2 71.6 74.2 76.5 78.2 79.3 79.9 80.1 80.5 81.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 7 6 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 58 70 83 76 83 71 59 71 66 56 36 31 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 160 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -12. -22. -35. -50. -64. -74. -82. -87. -95. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -0. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 6. 7. 13. 15. 19. 22. 22. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -10. -17. -22. -29. -33. -35. -40. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 160. LAT, LON: 19.1 66.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/07/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 74.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 160.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -6.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1008.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 2.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/07/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/07/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 160 157 156 155 154 150 143 138 131 127 125 120 88 18HR AGO 160 159 158 157 156 152 145 140 133 129 127 122 90 12HR AGO 160 157 156 155 154 150 143 138 131 127 125 120 88 6HR AGO 160 154 151 150 149 145 138 133 126 122 120 115 83 NOW 160 151 145 142 141 137 130 125 118 114 112 107 75 IN 6HR 160 157 148 142 139 138 131 126 119 115 113 108 76 IN 12HR 160 157 156 147 141 137 130 125 118 114 112 107 75