* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/06/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 160 158 155 153 149 146 140 131 129 121 122 123 120 V (KT) LAND 160 158 155 153 149 146 140 131 129 121 122 95 53 V (KT) LGEM 160 154 147 141 137 133 132 135 134 128 121 91 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 7 6 6 7 9 9 8 11 19 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 2 -1 -2 0 0 3 7 7 8 2 SHEAR DIR 260 262 243 266 322 320 337 345 284 271 276 247 228 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 160 162 158 159 163 164 167 168 166 169 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 156 156 157 152 151 152 153 152 150 146 148 140 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.4 -49.8 -49.9 -49.6 -49.4 -48.7 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 10 8 5 700-500 MB RH 53 55 50 50 51 51 52 55 62 63 65 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 35 35 33 37 40 40 46 45 51 55 56 850 MB ENV VOR 53 65 63 58 55 54 57 83 108 124 138 168 167 200 MB DIV 23 24 -28 -32 6 2 11 36 48 48 83 70 96 700-850 TADV 7 7 4 -2 -4 0 1 4 9 17 30 27 27 LAND (KM) 254 114 55 117 103 122 151 109 73 89 95 -42 -75 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.8 23.5 24.4 25.7 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 64.6 66.0 67.3 68.7 71.3 73.7 76.0 78.0 79.5 80.4 80.9 81.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 9 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 76 27 61 72 84 60 60 55 69 66 55 75 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 160 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -11. -21. -35. -50. -62. -73. -81. -86. -92. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 11. 17. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -11. -14. -20. -29. -31. -39. -38. -37. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 160. LAT, LON: 18.1 63.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 64.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 160.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -4.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1110.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 2.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 1.2% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/06/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 160 158 155 153 149 146 140 131 129 121 122 95 53 18HR AGO 160 159 156 154 150 147 141 132 130 122 123 96 54 12HR AGO 160 157 156 154 150 147 141 132 130 122 123 96 54 6HR AGO 160 154 151 150 146 143 137 128 126 118 119 92 50 NOW 160 151 145 142 141 138 132 123 121 113 114 87 45 IN 6HR 160 158 149 143 140 136 130 121 119 111 112 85 43 IN 12HR 160 158 155 146 140 136 130 121 119 111 112 85 43