* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/06/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 160 158 158 155 154 149 144 135 130 128 124 125 122 V (KT) LAND 160 158 158 155 154 149 144 135 130 128 124 125 122 V (KT) LGEM 160 154 147 142 139 134 136 137 135 130 124 116 104 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 5 5 9 5 9 10 8 18 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 0 1 -3 0 -2 -2 4 8 5 7 SHEAR DIR 262 246 343 243 271 342 310 335 292 293 276 262 252 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 160 160 158 159 164 167 170 166 166 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 156 155 155 151 151 153 153 154 148 145 147 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -50.6 -50.5 -49.6 -49.7 -49.4 -49.4 -48.5 -48.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 11 10 7 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 51 51 54 52 56 60 64 64 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 35 34 35 37 39 40 43 47 49 53 54 850 MB ENV VOR 57 53 61 62 59 59 55 74 99 120 147 177 201 200 MB DIV 8 8 0 -57 -20 49 32 77 19 53 69 69 58 700-850 TADV -2 5 6 5 1 0 5 3 7 11 31 27 32 LAND (KM) 407 253 114 77 134 109 166 104 47 55 89 59 59 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.7 21.4 21.9 22.2 22.8 23.8 24.6 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 61.9 63.3 64.7 66.0 67.4 70.0 72.8 75.3 77.4 79.0 80.3 81.3 82.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 54 75 53 61 74 81 68 61 55 66 60 40 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 160 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -11. -21. -34. -49. -62. -73. -81. -85. -92. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 15. 16. 21. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -5. -6. -11. -16. -25. -30. -32. -36. -35. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 160. LAT, LON: 17.7 61.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.96 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 160.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -4.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1030.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 1.1% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/06/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 160 158 158 155 154 149 144 135 130 128 124 125 122 18HR AGO 160 159 159 156 155 150 145 136 131 129 125 126 123 12HR AGO 160 157 156 153 152 147 142 133 128 126 122 123 120 6HR AGO 160 154 151 150 149 144 139 130 125 123 119 120 117 NOW 160 151 145 142 141 136 131 122 117 115 111 112 109 IN 6HR 160 158 149 143 140 137 132 123 118 116 112 113 110 IN 12HR 160 158 158 149 143 139 134 125 120 118 114 115 112