* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/05/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 160 161 158 151 146 138 136 132 127 122 119 119 117 V (KT) LAND 160 161 158 151 146 138 136 132 127 122 119 119 117 V (KT) LGEM 160 160 154 147 141 137 135 135 136 133 131 126 115 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 7 5 5 8 8 5 5 6 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 0 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 3 8 3 SHEAR DIR 357 289 296 296 318 321 349 305 345 268 270 266 256 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 158 160 162 158 161 165 168 169 167 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 155 155 155 157 157 151 153 154 155 152 148 149 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -50.4 -50.4 -49.9 -50.2 -49.8 -49.7 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 10 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 53 54 51 54 55 56 60 65 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 34 34 34 32 37 39 40 42 45 48 49 850 MB ENV VOR 72 65 59 60 65 59 61 54 74 94 110 141 175 200 MB DIV 46 19 6 0 20 -19 19 16 62 48 61 70 56 700-850 TADV -11 -5 1 7 3 4 -3 2 6 1 12 25 23 LAND (KM) 705 561 417 264 120 126 96 144 69 46 69 111 96 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.6 20.6 21.2 21.6 22.3 23.2 24.0 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 59.2 60.5 61.8 63.2 64.6 67.5 70.2 72.8 75.4 77.6 79.3 80.7 82.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 10 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 59 56 56 75 36 75 73 67 62 59 69 60 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -11. -20. -33. -48. -61. -72. -79. -84. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -6. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -9. -14. -22. -24. -28. -33. -38. -41. -41. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 160. LAT, LON: 16.9 59.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/05/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 160.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 963.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.8% 10.9% 9.0% 4.2% 1.8% 2.5% 2.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 21.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.5% 4.0% 3.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/05/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/05/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 160 161 158 151 146 138 136 132 127 122 119 119 117 18HR AGO 160 159 156 149 144 136 134 130 125 120 117 117 115 12HR AGO 160 157 156 149 144 136 134 130 125 120 117 117 115 6HR AGO 160 154 151 150 145 137 135 131 126 121 118 118 116 NOW 160 151 145 142 141 133 131 127 122 117 114 114 112 IN 6HR 160 161 152 146 143 135 133 129 124 119 116 116 114 IN 12HR 160 161 158 149 143 139 137 133 128 123 120 120 118