* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/05/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 127 126 124 121 120 118 116 119 116 118 116 119 V (KT) LAND 125 127 126 124 121 120 118 116 119 116 118 116 119 V (KT) LGEM 125 127 126 124 122 120 120 122 124 126 125 123 119 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 15 16 14 11 6 7 7 6 7 10 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 -3 1 1 0 0 0 -1 0 6 5 SHEAR DIR 354 345 331 309 312 319 298 300 283 282 268 259 259 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 158 158 160 160 158 160 164 166 170 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 156 158 155 155 156 155 151 151 153 154 155 151 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.3 -50.5 -49.8 -49.9 -49.6 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 11 700-500 MB RH 55 55 58 56 56 56 55 57 58 61 63 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 32 32 31 32 32 34 39 40 44 45 50 850 MB ENV VOR 79 73 71 67 60 61 60 58 59 86 104 129 149 200 MB DIV -1 13 46 4 5 46 -12 27 33 53 35 81 101 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -7 -3 -1 6 6 0 7 8 8 21 32 LAND (KM) 813 758 725 585 436 151 133 110 167 137 100 87 88 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.6 19.7 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.4 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.6 58.9 60.3 61.6 64.3 67.1 69.9 72.5 75.0 77.3 79.3 81.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 53 57 62 61 57 47 69 77 62 63 65 70 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -11. -21. -30. -37. -43. -46. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -8. -4. 1. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 7. 7. 12. 12. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -6. -9. -7. -9. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.6 56.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/05/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 691.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.26 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.0% 7.2% 5.3% 2.6% 1.5% 2.3% 3.3% 0.9% Bayesian: 13.5% 4.3% 3.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.6% 8.9% 2.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/05/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/05/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 127 126 124 121 120 118 116 119 116 118 116 119 18HR AGO 125 124 123 121 118 117 115 113 116 113 115 113 116 12HR AGO 125 122 121 119 116 115 113 111 114 111 113 111 114 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 112 111 109 107 110 107 109 107 110 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 105 103 101 104 101 103 101 104 IN 6HR 125 127 118 112 109 105 103 101 104 101 103 101 104 IN 12HR 125 127 126 117 111 107 105 103 106 103 105 103 106