* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/05/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 124 124 125 125 124 122 120 116 112 113 115 117 V (KT) LAND 120 124 124 125 125 124 122 120 116 112 113 115 117 V (KT) LGEM 120 124 127 126 125 123 123 122 120 118 118 118 116 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 14 13 7 10 7 8 11 11 8 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 2 1 2 0 4 2 2 0 4 0 SHEAR DIR 44 360 9 4 317 309 315 313 287 302 258 275 257 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 159 158 158 158 160 160 160 163 164 170 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 155 156 155 155 154 156 154 152 153 153 156 152 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.0 -50.1 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 14 13 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 53 56 55 59 58 58 57 59 59 61 64 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 33 33 34 36 37 38 40 42 46 49 850 MB ENV VOR 80 78 72 73 67 60 62 56 57 69 98 114 148 200 MB DIV 12 -1 14 25 7 40 35 11 33 50 76 69 54 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -6 -6 -2 2 6 9 1 15 6 17 17 LAND (KM) 913 833 766 741 598 305 88 122 111 151 85 56 67 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.8 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.3 19.2 20.1 20.8 21.5 21.9 22.7 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 55.1 56.3 57.5 58.8 60.1 62.8 65.6 68.4 71.1 73.7 76.1 78.2 80.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 52 55 62 63 69 63 81 60 58 55 53 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -9. -18. -26. -33. -38. -41. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -3. 1. 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 11. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -4. -8. -7. -5. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 16.7 55.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/05/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.74 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 120.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.02 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 692.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.26 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.4% 17.8% 15.2% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.8% 14.0% 11.3% 7.9% 6.3% 4.7% 3.7% 1.0% Bayesian: 18.1% 10.8% 9.6% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.7% 14.2% 12.0% 7.0% 2.3% 1.6% 1.2% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/05/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/05/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 124 124 125 125 124 122 120 116 112 113 115 117 18HR AGO 120 119 119 120 120 119 117 115 111 107 108 110 112 12HR AGO 120 117 116 117 117 116 114 112 108 104 105 107 109 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 110 109 107 105 101 97 98 100 102 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 100 98 96 92 88 89 91 93 IN 6HR 120 124 115 109 106 108 106 104 100 96 97 99 101 IN 12HR 120 124 124 115 109 105 103 101 97 93 94 96 98