* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/04/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 120 120 121 120 119 118 115 112 111 112 111 V (KT) LAND 115 118 120 120 121 120 119 118 115 112 111 112 83 V (KT) LGEM 115 120 123 124 124 122 120 119 117 115 115 114 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 13 10 9 7 7 12 13 8 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 5 4 2 5 3 3 0 1 1 4 SHEAR DIR 46 28 356 345 347 294 317 273 310 288 277 264 298 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 159 159 159 158 158 160 158 159 165 168 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 151 154 154 156 156 155 155 150 151 154 155 160 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.3 -50.5 -50.0 -50.2 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 700-500 MB RH 53 51 55 56 59 59 60 57 59 61 63 66 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 31 32 32 32 33 36 36 38 41 44 44 850 MB ENV VOR 82 80 77 72 70 65 69 62 60 60 80 94 116 200 MB DIV 26 -2 -27 9 36 17 85 20 25 41 47 48 46 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -4 -5 -3 -3 7 9 2 7 6 8 17 LAND (KM) 1008 917 835 783 750 478 177 122 83 129 106 49 -11 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.8 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.0 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 53.9 55.0 56.2 57.3 58.5 61.2 64.1 66.9 69.6 72.2 74.8 77.0 79.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 43 45 51 55 60 60 76 67 75 59 71 53 112 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -16. -22. -28. -33. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. -0. -3. -4. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.7 53.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/04/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.74 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.10 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.08 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 698.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.26 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.7% 18.2% 15.4% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.0% 14.4% 11.4% 7.8% 5.6% 6.6% 3.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 15.8% 7.1% 7.0% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.2% 13.2% 11.3% 7.1% 2.1% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/04/17 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/04/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 118 120 120 121 120 119 118 115 112 111 112 83 18HR AGO 115 114 116 116 117 116 115 114 111 108 107 108 79 12HR AGO 115 112 111 111 112 111 110 109 106 103 102 103 74 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 106 105 104 103 100 97 96 97 68 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 95 94 93 90 87 86 87 58 IN 6HR 115 118 109 103 100 97 96 95 92 89 88 89 60 IN 12HR 115 118 120 111 105 101 100 99 96 93 92 93 64