* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/04/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 107 110 112 113 115 113 111 107 103 105 103 105 V (KT) LAND 105 107 110 112 113 115 113 111 107 103 105 103 105 V (KT) LGEM 105 108 110 113 115 116 115 113 111 108 107 106 104 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 10 11 11 9 13 9 12 15 15 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 356 42 27 353 342 313 298 292 295 294 291 264 277 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 155 159 159 158 158 160 160 159 161 164 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 150 155 155 155 155 156 154 151 150 153 156 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 55 53 53 57 57 59 59 58 59 59 64 65 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 31 32 32 33 34 33 32 36 37 39 850 MB ENV VOR 78 72 70 70 68 57 55 53 45 56 63 90 100 200 MB DIV 31 20 -6 -14 20 50 44 31 9 22 38 51 34 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 -5 -7 -6 3 6 7 0 16 5 12 LAND (KM) 1125 1017 913 837 773 644 348 102 147 103 144 88 47 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.6 16.7 17.3 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 52.6 53.8 54.9 56.0 57.2 59.7 62.4 65.2 68.0 70.6 73.0 75.2 77.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 49 44 43 50 54 63 63 65 80 66 31 65 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 3. 1. -4. -10. -15. -20. -25. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 6. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 8. 6. 2. -2. -0. -2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.8 52.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/04/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.75 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.14 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 664.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.29 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 17.0% 14.3% 11.2% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.3% 12.5% 9.7% 7.2% 5.0% 5.6% 3.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 8.7% 7.7% 6.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.5% 12.4% 10.0% 6.8% 4.7% 1.9% 1.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/04/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/04/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 107 110 112 113 115 113 111 107 103 105 103 105 18HR AGO 105 104 107 109 110 112 110 108 104 100 102 100 102 12HR AGO 105 102 101 103 104 106 104 102 98 94 96 94 96 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 96 98 96 94 90 86 88 86 88 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 88 86 84 80 76 78 76 78 IN 6HR 105 107 98 92 89 88 86 84 80 76 78 76 78 IN 12HR 105 107 110 101 95 91 89 87 83 79 81 79 81