* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/04/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 105 107 109 110 108 110 111 108 106 109 108 V (KT) LAND 100 102 105 107 109 110 108 110 111 108 106 109 108 V (KT) LGEM 100 101 103 106 108 109 110 109 108 106 106 107 108 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 9 11 9 11 12 12 13 16 12 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 5 4 4 5 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 316 25 41 25 356 325 293 303 288 311 288 288 246 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 150 154 154 153 153 153 153 151 154 159 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 142 145 148 149 149 149 149 147 143 143 146 150 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.5 -49.8 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 13 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 55 57 60 62 63 60 62 61 65 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 31 32 33 34 34 38 40 40 40 43 44 850 MB ENV VOR 77 77 72 75 75 67 66 67 59 65 61 86 97 200 MB DIV 31 51 27 0 21 87 54 72 9 22 42 78 38 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -4 0 11 14 2 14 6 4 LAND (KM) 1216 1104 994 909 833 750 489 207 155 142 200 230 232 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 16.8 16.5 16.6 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.8 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.4 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 51.7 52.8 53.9 55.0 56.1 58.5 61.1 63.8 66.6 69.2 71.6 73.7 75.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 49 44 44 51 62 60 75 68 87 66 54 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -10. -15. -20. -23. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 10. 9. 8. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 10. 11. 8. 6. 9. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.0 51.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/04/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.82 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.30 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.15 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 607.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.34 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 41.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 16.5% 13.6% 10.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.6% 8.2% 6.0% 5.1% 4.1% 4.8% 1.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 6.8% 6.6% 4.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 10.4% 7.9% 5.5% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/04/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/04/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 105 107 109 110 108 110 111 108 106 109 108 18HR AGO 100 99 102 104 106 107 105 107 108 105 103 106 105 12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 100 101 99 101 102 99 97 100 99 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 93 91 93 94 91 89 92 91 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 82 80 82 83 80 78 81 80 IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 84 82 84 85 82 80 83 82 IN 12HR 100 102 105 96 90 86 84 86 87 84 82 85 84