* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/03/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 104 105 107 110 109 104 106 105 103 107 108 V (KT) LAND 100 102 104 105 107 110 109 104 106 105 103 107 108 V (KT) LGEM 100 101 103 104 106 111 111 108 108 105 103 104 108 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 8 8 11 10 11 11 13 9 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 8 6 7 4 6 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 12 12 332 18 28 328 330 290 291 286 296 278 264 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 138 143 145 148 152 151 151 153 153 151 154 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 132 136 138 142 147 146 147 148 146 143 144 147 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.5 -50.3 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 700-500 MB RH 56 54 56 58 58 61 63 63 66 65 66 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 28 31 33 35 34 37 38 39 43 46 850 MB ENV VOR 79 75 77 79 76 79 73 66 63 59 60 55 78 200 MB DIV 35 23 22 45 40 43 102 25 67 35 48 36 72 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -4 -2 -5 -1 -1 10 9 14 7 12 LAND (KM) 1442 1371 1255 1155 1056 893 801 538 257 188 238 288 332 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.5 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.9 17.4 18.1 19.1 20.2 21.4 22.4 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 49.2 50.3 51.4 52.4 53.4 55.6 58.0 60.6 63.4 66.0 68.5 71.0 73.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 40 49 47 52 63 68 68 62 80 70 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 4. 8. 9. 8. 13. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 9. 4. 6. 5. 3. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.8 49.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.89 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.45 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 594.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.36 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 51.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 17.7% 14.5% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 4.4% 3.1% 1.8% 0.8% 4.2% 1.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 6.3% 4.4% 3.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 8.8% 7.0% 4.0% 0.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/03/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 104 105 107 110 109 104 106 105 103 107 108 18HR AGO 100 99 101 102 104 107 106 101 103 102 100 104 105 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 99 102 101 96 98 97 95 99 100 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 95 94 89 91 90 88 92 93 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 84 83 78 80 79 77 81 82 IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 84 83 78 80 79 77 81 82 IN 12HR 100 102 104 95 89 85 84 79 81 80 78 82 83