* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/03/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 103 107 108 108 110 107 104 107 105 101 108 V (KT) LAND 100 101 103 107 108 108 110 107 104 107 105 101 108 V (KT) LGEM 100 102 104 105 107 108 109 106 104 102 100 100 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 4 11 13 14 15 13 15 15 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 7 9 6 7 2 0 0 -2 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 358 23 32 4 6 4 338 322 306 277 266 258 260 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 136 140 143 147 152 154 153 153 153 153 153 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 130 134 136 141 147 151 148 149 149 148 145 149 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 51 54 53 54 56 59 62 63 66 66 66 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 26 30 31 31 34 34 33 37 38 36 42 850 MB ENV VOR 72 71 72 76 77 72 75 65 63 59 57 56 61 200 MB DIV 20 28 21 25 48 51 85 54 64 49 42 35 60 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -4 -5 -4 -7 -1 10 8 10 6 8 LAND (KM) 1499 1407 1322 1242 1133 946 772 688 411 175 212 219 352 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.4 17.0 16.8 16.5 16.4 16.5 17.2 18.3 19.4 20.4 21.7 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 47.9 49.0 50.2 51.2 52.3 54.4 56.9 59.3 61.8 64.5 67.4 70.1 72.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 15 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 30 41 50 44 53 65 61 68 78 78 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -13. -17. -21. -25. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 4. 5. 9. 8. 7. 12. 11. 8. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 8. 8. 10. 7. 4. 7. 5. 1. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.8 47.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.83 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.04 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 654.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.30 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 59.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 17.0% 14.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 3.0% 2.0% 1.1% 0.1% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 5.8% 3.5% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 7.8% 6.4% 3.5% 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/03/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 103 107 108 108 110 107 104 107 105 101 108 18HR AGO 100 99 101 105 106 106 108 105 102 105 103 99 106 12HR AGO 100 97 96 100 101 101 103 100 97 100 98 94 101 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 91 91 93 90 87 90 88 84 91 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 81 83 80 77 80 78 74 81 IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 82 84 81 78 81 79 75 82 IN 12HR 100 101 103 94 88 84 86 83 80 83 81 77 84