* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/03/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 96 97 101 103 102 104 103 103 102 106 106 V (KT) LAND 95 95 96 97 101 103 102 104 103 103 102 106 106 V (KT) LGEM 95 95 95 97 99 102 105 106 103 101 100 99 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 11 8 7 11 13 11 16 15 13 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 5 7 5 9 2 5 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 355 9 24 23 3 15 338 333 301 288 269 257 257 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 136 138 143 150 154 153 152 153 153 151 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 125 128 131 137 145 149 149 148 147 146 143 147 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -50.9 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 53 51 55 54 54 58 62 65 66 69 66 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 26 29 30 30 33 34 35 35 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR 66 72 74 77 76 76 79 73 67 66 61 56 56 200 MB DIV 23 28 30 39 40 70 54 72 32 66 46 68 48 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 1 15 6 13 14 LAND (KM) 1586 1504 1425 1355 1261 1043 877 791 527 285 223 295 389 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 17.9 17.6 17.3 17.0 16.6 16.7 17.3 18.3 19.5 20.5 21.9 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 46.9 48.0 49.1 50.1 51.2 53.4 55.6 58.0 60.7 63.3 65.8 68.3 70.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 11 11 11 13 14 13 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 24 25 37 45 48 54 69 60 56 69 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 10. 9. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 7. 9. 8. 8. 7. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.2 46.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.77 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.16 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.54 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 637.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.32 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 15.4% 13.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 3.8% 2.6% 1.5% 0.5% 3.6% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.5% 3.3% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 7.5% 6.0% 3.5% 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/03/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 96 97 101 103 102 104 103 103 102 106 106 18HR AGO 95 94 95 96 100 102 101 103 102 102 101 105 105 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 96 98 97 99 98 98 97 101 101 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 89 91 90 92 91 91 90 94 94 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 78 77 79 78 78 77 81 81 IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 78 77 79 78 78 77 81 81 IN 12HR 95 95 96 87 81 77 76 78 77 77 76 80 80