* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/02/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 93 95 96 99 101 100 96 96 101 100 103 V (KT) LAND 95 93 93 95 96 99 101 100 96 96 101 100 103 V (KT) LGEM 95 93 92 91 92 97 100 100 97 94 93 93 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 11 11 11 11 12 11 16 17 13 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 3 3 5 8 6 1 -3 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 324 327 350 358 15 11 9 321 319 281 257 238 245 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 128 131 134 141 147 150 150 149 152 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 121 123 127 135 141 144 144 144 146 145 145 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 49 47 51 52 52 54 59 60 63 66 68 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 28 28 31 33 33 32 33 36 36 39 850 MB ENV VOR 64 64 70 78 80 81 84 79 70 71 69 53 54 200 MB DIV 31 15 15 36 64 59 63 52 58 37 87 47 63 700-850 TADV 1 -5 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 -8 -3 6 15 16 20 LAND (KM) 1782 1695 1614 1533 1452 1309 1111 955 859 633 417 335 403 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.5 18.3 18.0 17.7 17.2 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.6 19.9 21.3 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 44.0 45.3 46.5 47.6 48.7 50.8 53.0 55.2 57.4 59.7 62.1 64.8 67.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 13 14 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 20 22 21 32 48 53 52 64 52 53 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -22. -25. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 7. 7. 11. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -0. 1. 5. 6. 5. 1. 1. 6. 5. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.7 44.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/02/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 713.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.24 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 4.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/02/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/02/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 93 93 95 96 99 101 100 96 96 101 100 103 18HR AGO 95 94 94 96 97 100 102 101 97 97 102 101 104 12HR AGO 95 92 91 93 94 97 99 98 94 94 99 98 101 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 86 89 91 90 86 86 91 90 93 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 79 81 80 76 76 81 80 83 IN 6HR 95 93 84 78 75 76 78 77 73 73 78 77 80 IN 12HR 95 93 93 84 78 74 76 75 71 71 76 75 78