* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/02/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 93 92 94 95 99 98 98 98 94 101 100 V (KT) LAND 95 93 93 92 94 95 99 98 98 98 94 101 100 V (KT) LGEM 95 92 90 89 89 93 97 100 100 95 91 91 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 13 12 10 13 14 20 18 19 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 5 0 1 2 3 4 1 -3 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 292 323 332 335 341 5 8 350 323 292 278 258 252 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 127 131 137 144 150 152 149 151 153 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 117 120 123 130 138 145 146 144 146 148 146 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 51 52 53 58 58 62 65 67 69 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 25 28 29 33 33 35 35 33 38 39 850 MB ENV VOR 67 69 70 73 76 80 81 80 76 77 67 68 51 200 MB DIV 22 34 31 21 46 62 52 39 50 71 54 88 55 700-850 TADV 6 5 0 -1 1 -2 -5 -5 -7 0 12 13 23 LAND (KM) 1892 1797 1708 1620 1537 1382 1222 1032 898 793 540 329 355 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.2 17.9 17.3 16.8 16.8 17.2 17.9 18.8 20.1 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 43.8 45.0 46.1 47.3 49.4 51.5 53.7 55.9 58.2 60.6 63.2 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 21 23 24 46 46 55 52 70 53 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 2. 3. 7. 7. 9. 9. 6. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 4. 3. 3. 3. -1. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.9 42.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/02/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 718.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.24 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 3.5% 2.3% 1.5% 0.5% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 5.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/02/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/02/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 93 93 92 94 95 99 98 98 98 94 101 100 18HR AGO 95 94 94 93 95 96 100 99 99 99 95 102 101 12HR AGO 95 92 91 90 92 93 97 96 96 96 92 99 98 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 87 88 92 91 91 91 87 94 93 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 77 81 80 80 80 76 83 82 IN 6HR 95 93 84 78 75 74 78 77 77 77 73 80 79 IN 12HR 95 93 93 84 78 74 78 77 77 77 73 80 79