* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/02/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 99 99 98 100 100 102 99 101 100 102 102 V (KT) LAND 100 99 99 99 98 100 100 102 99 101 100 102 102 V (KT) LGEM 100 98 95 93 92 93 97 101 101 99 95 93 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 6 9 9 13 14 13 12 17 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 4 2 4 1 4 4 4 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 180 290 9 356 336 358 342 356 334 314 276 266 257 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.7 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 124 124 127 133 140 146 150 150 148 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 116 116 120 126 133 140 145 144 141 146 147 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.1 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 49 50 53 57 59 62 66 69 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 25 26 26 29 31 34 34 36 37 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR 71 71 68 74 76 80 82 83 78 72 75 73 58 200 MB DIV 28 33 35 22 19 67 52 29 32 81 59 97 46 700-850 TADV 2 5 4 0 -2 0 -2 -3 -10 1 9 21 28 LAND (KM) 2002 1909 1821 1727 1637 1474 1329 1160 983 882 759 521 365 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.0 18.8 18.5 18.2 17.6 17.0 16.8 16.9 17.5 18.5 19.8 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 42.3 43.5 44.6 45.8 48.0 50.0 52.2 54.4 56.6 58.5 61.0 64.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 12 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 16 15 17 22 30 50 45 55 56 56 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -22. -26. -29. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 11. 10. 13. 13. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 0. 2. -1. 1. -0. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.1 41.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/02/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 777.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.18 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 23.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 4.1% 2.6% 1.7% 0.7% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/02/17 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/02/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 99 99 99 98 100 100 102 99 101 100 102 102 18HR AGO 100 99 99 99 98 100 100 102 99 101 100 102 102 12HR AGO 100 97 96 96 95 97 97 99 96 98 97 99 99 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 91 91 93 90 92 91 93 93 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 83 83 85 82 84 83 85 85 IN 6HR 100 99 90 84 81 82 82 84 81 83 82 84 84 IN 12HR 100 99 99 90 84 80 80 82 79 81 80 82 82