* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/02/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 104 103 102 100 99 98 96 96 97 98 98 V (KT) LAND 105 105 104 103 102 100 99 98 96 96 97 98 98 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 101 97 95 94 96 98 99 100 99 97 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 1 1 2 14 11 14 11 13 15 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 6 4 1 3 6 6 5 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 187 198 270 298 320 345 351 352 340 327 284 278 258 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 122 124 125 131 137 144 150 152 151 149 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 114 116 117 124 131 138 145 146 145 143 144 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 48 47 51 56 59 60 62 64 68 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 24 25 27 29 30 31 33 34 37 38 850 MB ENV VOR 78 76 67 72 78 88 94 97 96 95 93 83 76 200 MB DIV 30 32 29 35 33 57 57 62 49 48 59 104 78 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 -3 -2 -2 -4 -6 -5 3 14 17 LAND (KM) 2091 1997 1905 1807 1715 1535 1364 1229 1043 900 820 601 394 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.4 17.7 17.0 16.6 16.6 16.9 17.5 18.5 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 39.8 41.0 42.3 43.5 44.7 46.9 49.1 51.3 53.4 55.5 57.8 60.0 62.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 16 16 16 14 24 28 47 45 44 44 64 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -21. -27. -31. -35. -37. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 19.1 39.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/02/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.96 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 834.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.12 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 7.0% 4.2% 2.6% 2.1% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/02/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/02/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 105 104 103 102 100 99 98 96 96 97 98 98 18HR AGO 105 104 103 102 101 99 98 97 95 95 96 97 97 12HR AGO 105 102 101 100 99 97 96 95 93 93 94 95 95 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 92 91 90 88 88 89 90 90 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 84 83 82 80 80 81 82 82 IN 6HR 105 105 96 90 87 84 83 82 80 80 81 82 82 IN 12HR 105 105 104 95 89 85 84 83 81 81 82 83 83