* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/01/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 98 96 95 93 92 90 90 90 91 94 94 V (KT) LAND 100 99 98 96 95 93 92 90 90 90 91 94 94 V (KT) LGEM 100 98 94 90 88 87 91 95 96 99 100 98 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 2 5 1 13 12 10 9 10 12 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 7 5 8 0 3 5 6 4 5 0 4 SHEAR DIR 190 204 298 301 52 321 3 345 7 320 325 291 296 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 120 121 124 127 134 140 147 152 152 149 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 112 114 117 121 128 133 141 146 146 141 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 53 50 52 50 49 51 55 57 60 61 63 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 23 22 21 23 25 25 27 27 29 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR 86 77 68 70 72 82 86 92 87 88 78 66 60 200 MB DIV 54 27 19 33 40 15 41 43 39 40 58 33 85 700-850 TADV 8 3 2 5 1 -4 -3 -4 -5 -10 -6 2 12 LAND (KM) 2152 2079 2006 1910 1818 1618 1429 1283 1136 968 876 751 527 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.7 18.5 17.9 17.1 16.6 16.4 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.6 40.8 41.9 43.1 45.6 47.9 50.1 52.2 54.3 56.4 58.6 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 9 15 16 16 18 26 33 51 42 47 50 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. -34. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.8 38.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/01/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.99 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 732.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.22 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/01/17 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 22 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/01/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 99 98 96 95 93 92 90 90 90 91 94 94 18HR AGO 100 99 98 96 95 93 92 90 90 90 91 94 94 12HR AGO 100 97 96 94 93 91 90 88 88 88 89 92 92 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 87 86 84 84 84 85 88 88 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 78 76 76 76 77 80 80 IN 6HR 100 99 90 84 81 78 77 75 75 75 76 79 79 IN 12HR 100 99 98 89 83 79 78 76 76 76 77 80 80