* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/01/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 92 92 91 91 89 91 94 92 97 97 98 V (KT) LAND 95 93 92 92 91 91 89 91 94 92 97 97 98 V (KT) LGEM 95 92 88 86 84 83 86 92 98 100 100 100 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 3 2 6 12 8 13 13 17 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 5 5 6 2 0 0 4 4 3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 156 162 166 209 262 315 358 13 4 350 330 310 297 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 120 120 123 125 130 135 141 147 152 152 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 113 113 116 118 124 128 135 141 147 147 144 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 54 53 52 54 53 56 58 60 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 23 22 23 24 28 30 30 34 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 84 83 84 79 77 80 93 104 109 106 95 83 69 200 MB DIV 66 78 27 16 30 20 47 37 31 45 65 64 65 700-850 TADV 15 11 4 1 1 -2 -4 -3 -6 -6 -5 -1 9 LAND (KM) 2134 2128 2057 1968 1877 1696 1499 1356 1241 1109 929 812 688 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.2 17.9 17.1 16.6 16.3 16.4 16.5 17.0 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 37.2 38.3 39.4 40.6 41.8 44.2 46.4 48.4 50.4 52.5 54.7 57.0 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 6 12 15 20 35 27 35 49 40 40 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -28. -30. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 3. 5. 4. 8. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -4. -1. -3. 2. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.3 37.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/01/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 624.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.33 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 4.7% 2.7% 1.4% 0.8% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/01/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/01/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 93 92 92 91 91 89 91 94 92 97 97 98 18HR AGO 95 94 93 93 92 92 90 92 95 93 98 98 99 12HR AGO 95 92 91 91 90 90 88 90 93 91 96 96 97 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 84 84 82 84 87 85 90 90 91 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 76 74 76 79 77 82 82 83 IN 6HR 95 93 84 78 75 74 72 74 77 75 80 80 81 IN 12HR 95 93 92 83 77 73 71 73 76 74 79 79 80