* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/01/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 96 95 94 90 87 90 92 93 95 98 98 V (KT) LAND 100 98 96 95 94 90 87 90 92 93 95 98 98 V (KT) LGEM 100 97 93 89 86 83 85 89 95 98 102 104 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 6 0 3 10 8 11 8 10 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 3 3 6 6 0 4 0 5 2 4 2 SHEAR DIR 152 124 139 163 232 302 328 15 357 11 333 329 289 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.9 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 121 120 120 124 127 133 138 144 150 154 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 113 113 112 116 120 126 132 138 145 150 146 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 55 59 57 55 55 52 54 54 57 58 61 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 23 24 23 24 29 31 32 33 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 75 86 85 86 78 71 87 99 112 114 112 102 94 200 MB DIV 51 85 79 32 19 31 16 61 42 44 37 70 66 700-850 TADV 9 13 9 5 3 0 -3 -1 -2 -3 -6 0 8 LAND (KM) 2003 2116 2147 2067 1990 1815 1618 1456 1329 1224 1021 871 798 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.1 17.5 17.0 16.7 16.5 16.4 16.8 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 36.0 37.1 38.1 39.3 40.4 42.6 44.9 47.1 49.2 51.3 53.5 55.8 58.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 1 3 9 16 23 30 27 48 43 41 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -20. -26. -31. -34. -36. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -10. -13. -10. -8. -7. -5. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.0 36.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/01/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 631.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.32 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 4.4% 2.3% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/01/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/01/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 98 96 95 94 90 87 90 92 93 95 98 98 18HR AGO 100 99 97 96 95 91 88 91 93 94 96 99 99 12HR AGO 100 97 96 95 94 90 87 90 92 93 95 98 98 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 85 82 85 87 88 90 93 93 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 77 74 77 79 80 82 85 85 IN 6HR 100 98 89 83 80 78 75 78 80 81 83 86 86 IN 12HR 100 98 96 87 81 77 74 77 79 80 82 85 85