* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/01/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 103 101 100 98 99 97 100 101 103 105 106 V (KT) LAND 100 104 103 101 100 98 99 97 100 101 103 105 106 V (KT) LGEM 100 103 102 98 95 91 91 93 97 103 106 110 111 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 7 9 4 2 4 10 10 14 9 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 2 3 7 4 0 -2 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 117 104 117 128 137 329 309 350 23 11 358 343 306 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 123 121 121 122 126 131 136 143 149 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 116 115 114 114 115 119 125 130 137 144 150 150 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 57 62 57 56 50 51 54 52 57 59 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 26 23 24 24 25 28 28 31 34 36 38 39 850 MB ENV VOR 80 75 84 84 87 83 93 105 113 123 122 124 124 200 MB DIV 45 60 73 70 39 25 38 51 30 21 21 55 58 700-850 TADV 5 6 7 7 4 2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1902 2005 2108 2123 2055 1884 1693 1505 1351 1217 1052 875 766 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.2 17.6 17.0 16.6 16.2 15.9 16.2 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 35.1 36.1 37.0 38.1 39.3 41.7 43.8 46.1 48.5 50.8 52.8 55.1 57.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 3 4 15 29 40 26 41 47 37 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -34. -37. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -1. -3. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.5 35.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/01/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.02 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 599.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.35 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 20.9% 12.7% 6.4% 4.3% 6.6% 2.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 6.1% 3.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 8.0% 4.6% 2.1% 1.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/01/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/01/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 104 103 101 100 98 99 97 100 101 103 105 106 18HR AGO 100 99 98 96 95 93 94 92 95 96 98 100 101 12HR AGO 100 97 96 94 93 91 92 90 93 94 96 98 99 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 87 88 86 89 90 92 94 95 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 80 78 81 82 84 86 87 IN 6HR 100 104 95 89 86 84 85 83 86 87 89 91 92 IN 12HR 100 104 103 94 88 84 85 83 86 87 89 91 92