* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 08/31/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 106 107 106 104 102 101 102 101 101 99 102 104 V (KT) LAND 100 106 107 106 104 102 101 102 101 101 99 102 104 V (KT) LGEM 100 107 107 104 100 94 93 96 102 106 108 112 110 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 4 6 9 2 2 6 6 14 11 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 0 0 5 6 1 4 -3 3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 304 134 155 135 121 26 24 2 18 8 25 330 342 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.9 27.3 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 124 123 121 120 124 128 136 141 147 152 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 116 115 114 113 118 123 131 136 143 147 150 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.4 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 61 59 57 52 51 50 52 54 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 24 24 25 26 26 28 30 33 34 38 39 850 MB ENV VOR 77 81 76 84 87 83 86 88 99 105 112 113 110 200 MB DIV 48 42 50 59 70 25 21 25 21 12 31 35 65 700-850 TADV 2 6 6 8 4 2 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1813 1912 2011 2118 2122 1973 1778 1577 1388 1239 1116 911 741 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.2 17.9 17.3 16.6 16.1 15.9 15.9 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 34.3 35.2 36.1 37.1 38.1 40.4 42.9 45.3 47.7 49.9 52.1 54.4 56.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 1 1 3 10 22 32 27 30 51 37 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -35. -37. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. -0. -3. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.1 34.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 08/31/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.02 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 552.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.40 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 26.7% 43.0% 30.2% 17.2% 12.4% 22.1% 5.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 6.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.1% 14.4% 10.1% 5.7% 4.1% 7.4% 1.7% 0.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 08/31/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 106 107 106 104 102 101 102 101 101 99 102 104 18HR AGO 100 99 100 99 97 95 94 95 94 94 92 95 97 12HR AGO 100 97 96 95 93 91 90 91 90 90 88 91 93 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 86 85 86 85 85 83 86 88 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 78 79 78 78 76 79 81 IN 6HR 100 106 97 91 88 86 85 86 85 85 83 86 88 IN 12HR 100 106 107 98 92 88 87 88 87 87 85 88 90