* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 08/31/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 74 78 82 88 94 96 101 106 108 110 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 74 78 82 88 94 96 101 106 108 110 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 72 76 79 83 88 93 96 101 105 109 109 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 4 1 7 4 3 9 9 9 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 2 3 0 0 6 0 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 62 66 88 153 76 104 54 54 357 28 8 25 345 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 127 127 126 123 121 125 128 135 140 147 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 120 119 118 116 115 118 122 129 134 141 148 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 61 61 63 58 55 54 52 54 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 22 23 22 24 26 27 30 33 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 47 58 73 79 76 87 87 87 96 98 95 102 102 200 MB DIV 43 53 60 50 62 86 34 27 15 -2 -21 13 20 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 8 7 4 1 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1604 1713 1821 1914 2006 2090 1940 1760 1573 1413 1287 1124 919 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.7 17.9 17.7 17.2 16.8 16.6 16.2 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 32.4 33.4 34.4 35.3 36.1 38.1 40.5 42.9 45.2 47.6 50.0 52.2 54.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 9 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 6 4 3 9 25 32 26 28 52 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 9. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 6. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 22. 28. 34. 36. 41. 46. 48. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.4 32.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 08/31/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.97 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.27 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.28 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 287.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.65 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 28.4% 19.9% 15.5% 0.0% 18.5% 17.4% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 26.6% 14.0% 6.7% 5.0% 11.3% 8.2% 8.5% Bayesian: 13.2% 46.6% 28.6% 6.1% 1.5% 9.8% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 10.1% 33.9% 20.8% 9.4% 2.2% 13.2% 8.7% 2.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 08/31/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 70 74 78 82 88 94 96 101 106 108 110 18HR AGO 60 59 64 68 72 76 82 88 90 95 100 102 104 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 64 68 74 80 82 87 92 94 96 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 58 64 70 72 77 82 84 86 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT