* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 08/31/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 68 72 79 84 89 96 103 104 111 114 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 68 72 79 84 89 96 103 104 111 114 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 65 70 74 81 83 87 92 98 103 108 110 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 6 4 2 7 8 4 8 11 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 2 1 3 0 2 4 3 1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 65 38 77 90 140 99 108 55 33 35 37 42 2 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.5 28.0 28.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 127 127 126 123 121 122 126 131 137 144 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 120 119 118 115 114 116 120 124 132 140 147 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 64 61 61 57 50 46 47 48 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 21 21 23 24 25 27 31 31 35 37 850 MB ENV VOR 54 49 62 78 82 91 98 91 103 112 105 109 112 200 MB DIV 38 56 62 62 64 82 85 -5 25 -5 -13 -8 27 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 4 6 7 2 1 -2 -2 -2 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 1539 1643 1746 1838 1931 2127 2031 1869 1681 1505 1348 1209 975 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.8 18.1 18.1 17.8 17.3 16.8 16.4 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 31.8 32.7 33.7 34.5 35.4 37.2 39.4 41.8 44.3 46.7 49.0 51.4 53.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 10 9 8 4 6 16 22 33 25 53 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 13. 12. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 24. 29. 34. 41. 48. 49. 56. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.3 31.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 08/31/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.94 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.36 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.33 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 250.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 27.0% 17.4% 10.5% 9.6% 21.9% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 22.4% 11.8% 5.2% 4.5% 12.1% 9.1% 8.5% Bayesian: 11.8% 32.8% 20.2% 3.3% 0.7% 9.2% 2.9% 0.3% Consensus: 8.8% 27.4% 16.5% 6.4% 4.9% 14.4% 10.1% 2.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 08/31/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 64 68 72 79 84 89 96 103 104 111 114 18HR AGO 55 54 59 63 67 74 79 84 91 98 99 106 109 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 59 66 71 76 83 90 91 98 101 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 56 61 66 73 80 81 88 91 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT