* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 08/30/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 53 58 63 69 74 75 77 78 80 83 86 V (KT) LAND 40 47 53 58 63 69 74 75 77 78 80 83 86 V (KT) LGEM 40 47 53 59 64 71 74 75 75 76 79 83 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 1 4 4 5 7 6 7 8 3 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 -2 0 -5 0 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 30 34 17 40 76 193 266 240 250 207 209 108 334 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.4 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 125 125 124 120 118 118 121 124 130 134 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 121 116 115 114 111 109 110 115 119 123 124 121 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 64 62 59 54 46 42 42 46 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 15 16 15 15 15 16 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 54 61 60 52 56 70 62 55 57 77 89 89 89 200 MB DIV 34 28 29 37 32 23 39 42 -7 -7 6 1 3 700-850 TADV 4 0 -2 -1 3 6 7 0 5 -3 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1328 1468 1554 1629 1687 1800 1925 2143 2114 1841 1564 1373 1311 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.2 18.3 19.5 20.3 20.1 19.2 17.7 16.4 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 29.8 31.1 31.9 32.6 33.1 34.0 35.4 37.6 40.7 43.8 46.3 47.6 48.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 7 6 6 8 10 13 15 15 12 7 3 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 8 5 4 3 10 15 18 29 26 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 23. 29. 34. 35. 37. 38. 40. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.4 29.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 08/30/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 10.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.99 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.46 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 178.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 37.1% 26.5% 15.7% 0.0% 20.5% 19.8% 0.0% Logistic: 23.8% 42.8% 29.0% 16.5% 13.1% 23.9% 29.7% 28.6% Bayesian: 39.2% 71.4% 52.8% 29.0% 7.4% 23.3% 9.0% 0.2% Consensus: 25.2% 50.4% 36.1% 20.4% 6.8% 22.5% 19.5% 9.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 08/30/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 47 53 58 63 69 74 75 77 78 80 83 86 18HR AGO 40 39 45 50 55 61 66 67 69 70 72 75 78 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 46 52 57 58 60 61 63 66 69 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 41 46 47 49 50 52 55 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT