* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 37 38 37 36 38 40 40 40 39 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 37 38 37 36 38 40 40 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 37 40 45 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 22 27 23 23 20 19 13 8 12 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 1 1 0 0 -3 -2 -5 0 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 270 281 292 297 317 333 325 297 239 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 145 145 144 143 142 141 137 137 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 115 115 115 115 116 115 114 114 111 109 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 8 9 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 45 44 46 46 48 54 56 52 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -48 -49 -68 -71 -74 -81 -35 1 -2 -37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -5 -20 -37 -17 -26 -8 -2 24 -2 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 382 385 387 382 378 363 301 262 270 266 277 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.2 31.2 31.3 31.6 32.0 32.4 32.7 32.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.8 75.7 75.7 75.7 75.7 75.8 76.5 76.5 75.8 75.1 74.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 33 32 32 31 32 42 44 36 29 25 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.1 75.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.19 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.16 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.77 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.03 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.48 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 22.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 227.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 10.1% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% Logistic: 0.6% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/16/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/16/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 36 37 38 37 36 38 40 40 40 39 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 35 36 35 34 36 38 38 38 37 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 33 32 31 33 35 35 35 34 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 26 25 27 29 29 29 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT