* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 37 37 34 32 32 35 37 37 36 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 37 37 34 32 32 35 37 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 35 34 34 35 37 42 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 23 19 25 24 19 21 17 10 6 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 1 1 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 280 282 284 300 324 338 354 331 265 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 147 147 142 147 147 145 142 141 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 120 119 118 112 118 118 117 116 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 49 48 47 48 46 49 53 52 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -65 -48 -48 -71 -68 -81 -43 -21 22 -10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -2 7 -13 -27 -14 -22 -11 27 28 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -2 -3 -2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 330 363 396 388 379 339 374 374 329 310 314 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 30.9 30.6 30.8 30.9 31.3 30.9 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.8 76.6 76.4 76.3 76.3 76.3 76.4 76.4 76.3 75.8 74.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 1 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 41 42 40 39 39 40 40 40 37 28 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -3. 0. 2. 2. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.1 76.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.22 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.73 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.63 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.51 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 23.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 216.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 13.7% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% Logistic: 0.6% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.1% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/16/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/16/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 37 37 37 34 32 32 35 37 37 36 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 35 35 32 30 30 33 35 35 34 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 31 28 26 26 29 31 31 30 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 22 20 20 23 25 25 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT