* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 39 40 39 38 37 35 32 30 27 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 29 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 20 24 23 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 -3 -5 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 263 259 260 266 261 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 130 129 129 129 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 107 105 103 104 103 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 3 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 64 63 60 60 59 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -50 -52 -58 -49 -44 -70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 24 45 18 12 28 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 7 0 3 2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -26 -39 -52 -54 -56 -69 -69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.5 31.8 31.9 31.9 32.2 32.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.7 81.7 81.7 81.7 81.7 81.7 81.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 19 18 18 18 21 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.2 81.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.32 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.27 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.83 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.38 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 116.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 12.4% 8.4% 6.9% 5.0% 7.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.9% 3.1% 2.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/14/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/14/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT