* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/31/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 31 33 38 36 30 22 21 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 17 25 29 30 30 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 3 4 0 0 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 242 242 233 228 226 226 228 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 28.6 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.4 26.0 25.4 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 145 137 129 123 118 114 108 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 122 116 111 105 99 95 91 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.3 -50.5 -50.9 -51.8 -52.7 -52.4 -53.1 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 4 8 8 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 40 41 41 42 39 39 38 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 22 22 24 25 22 16 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 6 1 22 19 16 2 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 24 20 14 24 48 17 18 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 6 4 2 4 0 3 2 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -176 -250 -297 -370 -464 -589 -711 -668 -545 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 32.1 32.8 33.7 34.6 36.0 37.2 38.3 39.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.6 92.1 91.5 90.6 89.8 87.8 85.8 83.8 81.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -2. -7. -13. -18. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -5. -13. -22. -23. -23. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 4. 8. 6. -0. -8. -9. -12. -15. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.3 92.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/31/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.32 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.35 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.53 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 210.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 58.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 7.2% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 2.6% 2.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/31/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/31/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 27 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 21 22 22 22 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT