* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 46 40 35 30 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 46 40 35 30 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 45 39 35 31 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 48 62 68 80 84 59 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -3 -2 -13 -16 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 243 247 244 241 223 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.0 14.5 13.0 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 78 76 73 69 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 74 72 69 65 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -54.4 -54.3 -53.5 -51.8 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.7 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 1.0 3.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 52 48 46 49 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 20 17 16 18 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 99 104 129 122 169 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 84 115 94 85 80 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 79 114 90 109 32 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 498 693 942 1091 1243 1335 1403 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.0 45.9 47.7 49.1 50.4 51.8 52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.0 44.1 40.2 38.1 36.0 34.9 34.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 34 33 26 19 13 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 34 CX,CY: 29/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -13. -19. -23. -25. -26. -27. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -14. -30. -45. -57. -68. -79. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. -7. -3. 0. 3. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -13. -15. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -20. -25. -29. -33. -42. -52. -60. -68. -79. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 44.0 48.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 68.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 308.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.63 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 94.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.06 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/17/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 46 40 35 30 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 48 43 38 34 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 46 41 37 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 40 36 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT