* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/10/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 72 71 69 69 68 68 69 69 70 73 77 V (KT) LAND 70 53 41 35 32 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 52 41 34 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 18 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 17 32 43 62 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.5 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 174 175 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 168 171 174 175 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 76 77 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 11 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 60 64 65 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 45 59 58 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -16 -11 -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -19 -175 -267 -150 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 19.8 19.6 19.4 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.8 98.4 100.0 102.2 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 18 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 17 0 67 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -21. -22. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.0 96.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/10/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.42 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.28 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 110.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 19.1% 14.3% 10.0% 8.2% 13.1% 11.7% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 22.1% 14.4% 9.1% 8.1% 9.7% 14.4% 999.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 36.9% 26.6% 10.5% 999.0% 3.4% 10.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 26.0% 18.4% 9.8% 999.0% 8.8% 12.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/10/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/10/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 53 41 35 32 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 70 69 57 51 48 45 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 12HR AGO 70 67 66 60 57 54 53 53 52 52 52 52 52 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 54 53 53 52 52 52 52 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT