* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/09/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 69 70 67 62 61 61 61 60 59 60 62 V (KT) LAND 60 66 69 62 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 67 72 72 51 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 18 19 22 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 0 -1 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 3 5 350 10 31 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 171 171 172 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 164 162 161 164 164 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 12 11 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 73 72 76 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 19 17 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 22 43 50 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 49 86 30 41 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 -13 -14 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 195 182 100 -5 -112 -243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.0 19.8 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.4 94.5 95.6 96.6 97.7 100.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 51 56 40 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -9. -19. -22. -25. -26. -27. -28. -28. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 10. 8. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.2 93.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 12.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.44 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.31 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.37 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 107.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.7% 44.3% 28.7% 25.3% 9.7% 20.2% 17.6% 18.0% Logistic: 25.9% 34.1% 23.1% 12.5% 11.5% 24.3% 24.3% 33.2% Bayesian: 28.7% 64.4% 54.8% 21.6% 16.0% 6.5% 6.3% 1.2% Consensus: 25.1% 47.6% 35.5% 19.8% 12.4% 17.0% 16.1% 17.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 66 69 62 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 62 55 42 27 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 12HR AGO 60 57 56 49 36 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 37 22 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT