* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/08/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 57 61 68 65 60 54 57 60 63 66 V (KT) LAND 50 40 35 40 44 51 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 40 34 38 41 48 50 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 10 6 8 10 17 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 3 -2 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 323 355 4 13 8 3 40 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 166 168 171 171 172 173 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 157 157 158 162 163 164 168 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 12 11 9 9 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 67 67 70 72 77 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 17 18 19 21 15 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 17 13 12 25 44 52 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 11 32 43 47 60 54 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 -1 0 -2 -4 -10 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -42 -155 -37 74 177 209 24 -227 -177 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.3 20.0 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.9 89.0 90.2 91.2 92.3 94.3 96.5 99.1 102.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 11 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 86 54 49 40 31 47 29 0 68 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. -5. -13. -23. -23. -24. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 15. 10. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.1 87.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.81 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 52.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.62 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.77 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 222.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 43.2% 26.9% 15.5% 9.7% 29.4% 35.1% 21.4% Logistic: 999.0% 48.8% 35.9% 22.0% 11.4% 26.7% 11.1% 15.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.2% 2.8% 0.1% 999.0% 0.9% 0.7% 37.5% Consensus: 999.0% 32.1% 21.9% 12.5% 999.0% 19.0% 15.6% 24.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 40 35 40 44 51 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 44 49 53 60 56 42 38 36 36 36 36 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 55 62 58 44 40 38 38 38 38 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 51 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT