* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 61 65 72 79 81 71 66 63 65 67 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 50 40 40 47 49 36 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 51 41 39 49 57 59 36 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 6 4 6 5 4 11 16 17 10 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 1 2 6 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 271 236 285 332 56 1 353 24 42 28 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.2 29.9 30.1 30.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 165 163 164 168 171 171 168 171 172 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 159 159 156 157 157 163 162 156 159 167 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -51.9 -52.5 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 12 10 10 12 8 9 9 12 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 68 67 69 70 74 76 78 79 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 17 16 16 18 17 9 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 35 33 18 24 38 47 51 38 37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 61 71 52 31 45 40 45 30 26 43 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -3 -4 1 -8 -12 -16 1 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 170 208 83 -39 -148 63 222 169 -2 -178 -328 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.1 20.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.6 85.7 86.8 87.9 89.0 91.1 93.2 95.2 97.3 99.3 101.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 63 69 80 84 56 40 36 57 19 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 28.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. -9. -15. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 20. 27. 34. 36. 26. 21. 18. 20. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.4 84.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 14.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.85 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 70.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.45 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.75 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.76 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.40 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 168.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 61% is 10.2 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 55.3% 44.2% 27.1% 14.9% 41.4% 42.7% 61.1% Logistic: 22.9% 70.7% 55.9% 31.1% 10.4% 51.0% 54.5% 59.1% Bayesian: 7.9% 43.0% 18.9% 4.5% 1.6% 9.2% 16.9% 44.3% Consensus: 16.6% 56.3% 39.7% 20.9% 9.0% 33.9% 38.0% 54.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 54 50 40 40 47 49 36 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 49 45 35 35 42 44 31 25 23 22 22 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 27 27 34 36 23 17 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 25 25 32 34 21 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT