* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072017 08/07/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 49 57 66 76 78 69 63 65 67 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 49 34 38 49 51 42 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 46 33 36 44 50 50 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 14 16 7 5 7 4 14 19 17 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 0 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 258 270 281 216 313 80 358 336 8 26 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.4 29.0 29.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 160 165 167 164 164 164 165 158 152 154 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 157 161 162 158 156 153 151 145 141 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -51.9 -52.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 11 12 10 12 8 10 9 13 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 66 65 67 66 68 68 73 77 79 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 19 19 10 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 40 21 25 32 23 25 34 41 47 45 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 49 54 62 76 35 34 34 49 31 39 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -7 -5 -2 -1 -6 0 -11 -9 -14 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 132 117 177 161 37 -144 100 287 219 52 -154 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.9 85.0 86.1 87.2 89.2 91.4 93.2 94.9 96.8 99.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 11 10 8 8 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 47 68 76 71 54 36 42 58 38 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 17.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 8. -3. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 31. 41. 43. 34. 28. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.1 82.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 SEVEN 08/07/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.74 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 59.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.38 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.74 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.85 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 116.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.6 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 42.0% 23.1% 9.8% 8.2% 18.7% 36.8% 57.6% Logistic: 9.3% 46.8% 29.1% 8.9% 2.6% 31.6% 55.3% 74.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 9.2% 5.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% 15.3% 59.9% Consensus: 6.2% 32.7% 19.2% 6.4% 3.7% 17.1% 35.8% 63.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 SEVEN 08/07/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 SEVEN 08/07/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 44 49 34 38 49 51 42 31 28 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 45 30 34 45 47 38 27 24 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 39 24 28 39 41 32 21 18 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT