* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032017 06/22/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 21 23 24 20 20 22 23 23 23 21 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 10 16 32 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 8 2 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 207 221 231 233 233 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 25.4 23.7 22.4 21.3 22.0 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 108 96 90 86 92 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 94 85 81 79 85 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 11 14 9 7 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 54 59 58 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 17 14 12 16 16 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 19 7 -24 -37 -18 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 17 31 70 75 92 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 2 19 30 12 23 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -80 -183 -289 -387 -465 -641 -341 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.5 32.4 33.5 34.5 36.3 37.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.6 93.4 93.1 92.1 91.1 86.3 79.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 17 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. 2. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -4. -5. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -7. -6. -10. -10. -8. -7. -7. -7. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.5 93.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 CINDY 06/22/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.74 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.28 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 186.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 20.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 6.7% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 CINDY 06/22/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 CINDY 06/22/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT