* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 05/31/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 37 40 43 45 47 47 44 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 37 40 43 45 47 47 44 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 41 45 49 52 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 8 13 16 13 14 14 7 14 13 27 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -5 -1 -3 -7 -2 -7 -2 -4 -1 -4 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 212 210 178 197 226 220 242 248 270 259 278 275 283 SST (C) 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.1 23.0 22.6 23.1 23.8 23.4 23.0 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 95 97 99 99 99 96 89 88 91 98 97 96 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 81 83 83 83 82 77 76 79 85 86 87 84 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.9 -57.7 -57.4 -57.6 -57.5 -57.5 -57.6 -57.4 -57.6 -57.5 -57.7 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 7 5 6 3 5 3 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 52 54 56 58 57 59 58 59 58 58 56 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR -9 4 14 3 -24 -15 -22 3 -3 20 31 41 56 200 MB DIV 24 44 21 17 18 23 12 42 19 29 35 31 31 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 0 0 3 3 3 2 3 -8 -3 -26 LAND (KM) 45 67 85 87 76 39 10 40 180 387 554 710 915 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 32.8 32.9 33.1 33.3 34.1 34.7 35.4 35.8 36.5 37.1 37.4 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.0 78.8 78.5 78.2 77.9 77.3 76.5 75.5 73.9 71.4 67.9 63.0 57.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 8 13 17 21 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. -1. -6. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22. 19. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.9 79.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 05/31/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.62 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.26 0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 88.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 105.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 11.2% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.3% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 05/31/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 05/31/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 37 40 43 45 47 47 44 41 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 35 38 41 43 45 45 42 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 30 33 36 38 40 40 37 34 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 24 27 29 31 31 28 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT