* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022016 05/28/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 40 43 43 44 42 45 45 46 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 33 30 28 32 33 31 34 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 32 28 27 32 35 38 41 43 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 21 23 19 22 22 20 35 19 23 14 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -7 -4 -6 -7 -6 -8 -3 -6 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 183 180 183 178 175 173 187 189 207 202 245 235 281 SST (C) 26.1 25.4 24.0 23.3 22.6 22.8 23.2 23.7 24.1 23.9 22.5 21.8 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 115 109 97 91 86 87 90 93 95 95 86 81 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 95 85 79 74 74 77 79 81 80 74 70 73 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.8 -56.8 -57.1 -57.1 -56.6 -57.2 -56.8 -57.2 -56.9 -57.3 -57.2 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 4 4 7 4 8 5 7 4 6 3 700-500 MB RH 48 50 54 58 62 59 53 49 50 51 51 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -25 -31 -26 -20 0 8 -10 -17 -7 -10 -28 -52 200 MB DIV 12 31 28 28 3 38 25 28 20 10 3 0 -5 700-850 TADV 6 9 7 2 0 0 -5 0 0 0 0 0 7 LAND (KM) 302 237 114 52 -9 -9 -13 30 49 40 7 9 50 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.9 31.7 32.2 32.6 32.7 33.1 33.3 33.5 34.0 34.7 35.0 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 78.8 79.7 80.1 80.5 80.3 79.6 78.9 78.1 77.4 76.7 76.2 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 6 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 0. -4. -9. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 13. 14. 12. 15. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.0 78.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 TWO 05/28/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.35 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.41 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.26 0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 50.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 153.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 9.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.2% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 TWO 05/28/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 TWO 05/28/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 33 30 28 32 33 31 34 34 34 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 30 27 25 29 30 28 31 31 31 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 25 22 20 24 25 23 26 26 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT