* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARLENE AL012017 04/21/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 62 68 72 76 77 78 80 80 79 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 62 68 72 76 77 78 80 80 79 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 19 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 290 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 16.8 15.6 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 76 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -59.2 -58.4 -57.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.3 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 59 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 212 211 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 15 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 925 774 657 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.9 40.4 40.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.5 49.0 51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 28 CX,CY: -26/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 1091 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 12. 15. 20. 24. 26. 29. 31. 32. 29. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 23. 27. 31. 32. 33. 35. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.9 46.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012017 ARLENE 04/21/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 139.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012017 ARLENE 04/21/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012017 ARLENE 04/21/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 57 62 68 72 76 77 78 80 80 79 18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 57 63 67 71 72 73 75 75 74 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 50 56 60 64 65 66 68 68 67 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 46 50 54 55 56 58 58 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT