* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012017 04/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 46 50 54 58 60 62 61 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 46 50 54 58 60 62 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 30 31 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 23 23 18 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -3 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 284 268 266 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.3 19.8 19.4 18.8 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 78 77 76 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 71 71 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -58.6 -58.7 -59.2 -59.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 57 59 55 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 18 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 166 180 181 178 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 19 23 23 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 6 9 10 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1935 1861 1787 1661 1536 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.9 33.8 35.0 36.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.8 40.6 40.5 40.8 41.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 24. 28. 30. 32. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.1 40.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012017 ONE 04/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.34 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.55 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.64 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.11 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 103.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 8.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012017 ONE 04/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012017 ONE 04/19/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 37 40 46 50 54 58 60 62 61 61 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 44 48 52 56 58 60 59 59 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 42 46 50 52 54 53 53 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 33 37 41 43 45 44 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT