* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012016 01/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 82 85 89 92 93 92 90 88 83 76 V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 82 85 89 92 93 92 90 88 83 76 V (KT) LGE mod 75 78 76 73 71 66 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 17 16 14 17 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 6 12 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 262 253 209 189 161 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.8 18.5 16.9 15.6 14.7 10.4 5.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 82 78 76 75 75 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 76 73 72 72 72 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -59.9 -61.0 -62.4 -63.3 -63.6 -62.7 -63.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 57 59 64 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 33 36 39 39 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 110 83 62 92 152 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 21 58 121 144 119 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 26 42 70 108 99 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1504 1592 1648 1609 1552 1404 1499 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 34.6 36.5 39.3 42.0 49.2 57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 29.7 33.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 23 28 32 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 19 CX,CY: 5/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -13. -17. -24. -30. -35. -39. -42. -44. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 35. 41. 48. 54. 59. 61. 63. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -23. -27. -30. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 18. 17. 15. 13. 8. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012016 ALEX 01/14/16 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012016 ALEX 01/14/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 10( 20) 11( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)